Chances of finishing second..

A regular correspondent of mine called Michael (who I’m sure doesn’t really resemble ‘Statto’) has been very busy working out permutations for this weekend’s action.  Assuming that the odds for every outcome is equal (which of course, is questionable) then he’s even gone so far as to provide the % chance of the outcome, which – rather unsurprisingly – gives Doncaster favourable odds.  Since they are the only side with their fate entirely in their own hands, that makes sense.  The detail is below:

The first result is Doncaster, the second Forest and the third Carlisle, the team mentioned after is the lucky so and so that will finish second.  There are a whopping 27 permutations!

W-W-W Doncaster
W-W-D Doncaster
W-W-L Doncaster
W-D-W Doncaster
W-D-D Doncaster
W-D-L Doncaster
W-L-W Doncaster
W-L-D Doncaster
W-L-L Doncaster
D-W-W Forest
D-W-D Forest
D-W-L Forest
D-D-W Carlisle
D-D-D Doncaster
D-D-L Doncaster
D-L-W Carlisle
D-L-D Doncaster
D-L-L Doncaster
L-W-W Forest
L-W-D Forest
L-W-L Forest
L-D-W Carlisle
L-D-D Forest
L-D-L Forest
L-L-W Carlisle
L-L-D Doncaster
L-L-L Doncaster

Doncaster have a 15/27 or 55.6% chance
Forest have a 8/27 or 29.6% chance 
Carlisle have a 4/27 or 14.8% chance

Of course, there is a 28th permutation which we should find out more about on Thursday, which is the possibility of Leeds United having their 15 point deduction rescinded, which will catapult them into second place presumably to the chagrin of whichever other team was set to occupy the position!

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19 Responses

  1. OK, a 3 in 10 chance. That’s about fair. Sadly, its nonsense because Doncaster will beat Cheltenham. I know, I know, everyone says “Yeah, but Cheltenham are scrapping for their survival, and will put up a real fight.” Sorry, that’s crap. Cheltenham ARE scrapping for their survival, but only because they are not very good, and are punching above their weight being in this division at all. Doncaster have far too much for them, and are scrapping for auto promotion, so it will only go one way.

    I will be screaming at every pass on Saturday, and weeping with every goal we score, because we WILL thrash the pants off Yeovil. But our destiny is not in our hands because of December, January and February. We’ve played OK since, but it’s too late.

    I’m looking forward to Wembley. I’ve been to the old Wembley twice to watch Forest – 2 defeats to Spurs and ManU. I hope it will be third time lucky at the new stadium, and it should be a fantastic day.

  2. Wembley? There’s the small matter of the semi-finals first! 😆

    Whilst I too struggle to see past a Doncaster win, take a look at Cheltenham’s home record this season – in particular the goals conceded column… you’ll be pleasantly surprised…

  3. Just 5 games lost all season and a terrible away record….. I fancy this is ours for the taking, IF we can beat Yeovil. Not something I’m taking for granted, with the possibility of a large nervous crowd getting wound up and booing when we miss our first pass.

    Last time I went to Wembley was for England – Croatia. Don’t need a repeat of that night

  4. nffc – I take your point. But in response – look at Doncaster’s away record It’s worse than Cheltenham’s home record. So on paper, it’s a draw, maybe or a home win. But guess which team is second, and they’re not there for no reason. And guess which team is at risk of relgation – again, not without cause. Winning key games when you have to is, err, key. And Doncaster have done that pretty well this season, whereas Cheltenham haven’t.

    Don’t get me wrong though, inside I’m hoping against hope that Cheltenham will get at least a point. I just don’t see it happening, is all. I see us winning against Yeovil, but being denied by Donny (or Leeds, let’s not forget), and being in the Play-offs. But we’re getting up steam now (see http://www.stressandpie.co.uk) and will breeze the semi finals and march on to glory at Wembley.

    YYYYYYYYYYYYOOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUU RRRRRRRREEEEEEEEEEEDDDDDDDDDDDSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  5. Cheltenham will win and so will we, Carlisle can do what the hell they like as I am convinced second place is ours and I have been for some time now. The Leeds situation is something I am not so confident about!

  6. haha – I wrote this in the BBC forums! Glad it has been put onto a “proper” website 🙂

  7. and here is the post http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/606/A35242599

  8. This will be the link:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/606/A35242599

  9. Hi guys, just looking at that, and in order to see what the actual odds of us going up are you need to take into account all the odds for each possible result, but thats a lot of working out! i believe we can do it, lets just hope the cheating leeds scum don’t get their points back

  10. Leeds won’t get anything back as the other teams would appeal and they’d never be able to draw up a fixture list for next season.

  11. i think doncaster will draw with cheltenham and weil win however if not going according to plan i think were not very confident if we enter the play offs although things might change. Overall second place for me!!!!! U REDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  12. At last someone optimistic and confident! Joe, you are my main man! Wish I was there to buy you a couple of pints in the pub after the game, ie during the celebrations!!!
    THERES NO OTHER RESULT WE ARE WORRIED ABOUT. WE WIN —> WE GO UP! AND LEEDS CAN TAKE THEIR APPEAL AND SHOVE IT!
    UUUUUUU REEEEDS!

  13. Still as nervous as hell guys. As I may have said before, I happen to know a Donny coach and by all account they are pulling out all the stops. They’re taking more than the usual amount of players and staff, and unusually for them travelling down for a nights stopover too. I see this as a good sign, means they must be crapping themselves that they’ll throw it away. And we all know what can happen when it’s a big game and the nerves begin to fray…!
    Whatever happens, the players (if not the manager) deserve our fullest backing on Saturday. If we win but so do Donny, well, c’est la vie. We could’ve / should’ve done better. But think what a win will do for the lads confidence in the play-offs against Dirty Leeds.
    Come on boys, I sit Lower Trent and will stand and sing until the Gestapo tell me to sit down. Then I’ll just sing. Are you with me!!!
    Oh mist rolling in from the trent, my desire…………………………

  14. its getting more and more tense as the days go by just 2 days now cant wait!!!!!!!

  15. haha leeds didnt get their points back! brilliant

  16. Yes, dirty Leeds can sit where they are! There is justice in your country fellas!
    NOW EVERYONE BEHIND THE TEAM ON SATURDAY! I’m sure that if we win we will go up!

  17. Don’t get too excited about new Wembley. Whilst it’s an impressive stadium, its not a great football arena. Its very clinical, and the food is effin expensive.

  18. Forget Wembley, we’re going up 2day!!! U reddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddsssssssssssssssssssssssss!!!

  19. They tried to cheat their way to promotion as they knew what awaits them but it back fred when they tried to bend the rules. Bates has SOUR GRAPES!!! I feel sorry for Leeds fans as poor managemnet has cost them a shot to go straight up. & management here is not the manager as in our case….

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