Chances of finishing second..

A regular correspondent of mine called Michael (who I’m sure doesn’t really resemble ‘Statto’) has been very busy working out permutations for this weekend’s action.  Assuming that the odds for every outcome is equal (which of course, is questionable) then he’s even gone so far as to provide the % chance of the outcome, which – rather unsurprisingly – gives Doncaster favourable odds.  Since they are the only side with their fate entirely in their own hands, that makes sense.  The detail is below:

The first result is Doncaster, the second Forest and the third Carlisle, the team mentioned after is the lucky so and so that will finish second.  There are a whopping 27 permutations!

W-W-W Doncaster
W-W-D Doncaster
W-W-L Doncaster
W-D-W Doncaster
W-D-D Doncaster
W-D-L Doncaster
W-L-W Doncaster
W-L-D Doncaster
W-L-L Doncaster
D-W-W Forest
D-W-D Forest
D-W-L Forest
D-D-W Carlisle
D-D-D Doncaster
D-D-L Doncaster
D-L-W Carlisle
D-L-D Doncaster
D-L-L Doncaster
L-W-W Forest
L-W-D Forest
L-W-L Forest
L-D-W Carlisle
L-D-D Forest
L-D-L Forest
L-L-W Carlisle
L-L-D Doncaster
L-L-L Doncaster

Doncaster have a 15/27 or 55.6% chance
Forest have a 8/27 or 29.6% chance 
Carlisle have a 4/27 or 14.8% chance

Of course, there is a 28th permutation which we should find out more about on Thursday, which is the possibility of Leeds United having their 15 point deduction rescinded, which will catapult them into second place presumably to the chagrin of whichever other team was set to occupy the position!

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