Through the seasons before us..

I’m really enjoying this almost close season but we’re not involved in it, certainly from an on-the-field perspective, anyway!  Leeds booked their place at Wembley for a final date with either Doncaster or Southend tonight with (shock, horror!) another late goal at Carlisle this evening.  On balance, they deserved it I think.  Whilst Carlisle offered plenty at Elland Road, the Cumbrians were found lacking on their own turf and Leeds persevered to grab a well earned late winner - so unlucky Carlisle, I think I might nip down the bookies and have a bet on a late Leeds winner at Wembley.

The transfer rumours and nonsense continue to circle and we’ve, largely centred upon a certain Robert Earnshaw.  Did he have talks with us?  Did he feck off on holiday?  Was he really seen mowing his lawn in Bramcote?  The truth is, I haven’t a bleeding clue, and frankly I’ve given up trying to find out.  Trying to get the inside scoop on transfers only ever seems to lead to looking foolish, so I’ve opted to wait it out and just see what happens.  Smoulds has said he wants to move quickly, and when he’s said that in the past he generally hasn’t, so we’ll see!

Fans of Earnie’s former clubs I have spoken to seem to have mixed reviews, there are persistent suggestions of attitude issues, and a fondness for drink, which is consistent from numerous unconnected friends of mine who follow Derby, West Brom and Norwich.  Most agreed he’d bag goals at Championship level, and at least one Derby fan out there was man enough to admit he’d be gutted if he were sold to Forest as he could see him doing well here - so we shall see, as ever, the appraisal of football fans is nothing if not inconclusive.

The ‘will Commons go to Derby’ saga doesn’t seem any clearer either; whether he’s put his house on the market or not doesn’t really seem to swing the suggestion either way in my book - so again, I think I’ll just wait and see.  It is frustrating at this time of year, but I’ve learned from years past that so much shite gets touted across the internet (not least here!) that it’s best not to believe anything until it’s confirmed via official sources otherwise you’ll just end up with egg on your face!  It’ll probably take about a year to sell his house given market conditions, anyway!

I was thrilled that Paul Smith picked up the golden glove award though - he’s been an invaluable contributor to our results this season and comes in for an outrageous amount of stick from certain quarters; amusingly the very next announcement on the Official Site was that Smoulderwood is after a new goalkeeper.  Of course, it was merely comedic timing - I completely agree that, much as I rate Smith, we do need to have credible competition for him, and loaning out the youngsters to get them some experience is a sensible move.

Bunn from Northampton again seems to be the media’s keeper of choice for us to target - ably assisted by the Northampton Town PR machine desperately trying to bump up his value by revealing we’ve apparently bid a number of times for him in the past, but some way short of the staggering £1m valuation they seem to place upon him.  I rate Bunn, and would welcome his signing, but spending that much on a ‘keeper who is basically going to end up on the bench would seem somewhat fanciful.

A preseason friendly with Sunderland is a decent move, I think - a reunion with Roy Keane and Andy Reid as well as a decent standard of opponent to pit our new-look (hopefully!) squad against; given that they were promoted last season and managed to survive their first season back in the top flight, it should give us a good indication of our progress and certainly areas for improvement.  Whilst I despised him at his time of leaving, I do have many fond memories of Keane so it will be nice to see him back at the City Ground, and I’m sure I’ll muster a round of applause for Reidy too.

The latest rumour I’ve encountered (literally seconds ago) was that The Daily Mail are linking us to Sheffield United’s James Beattie.  With a supposed price tag of £4m!  Normally I’d write that off immediately as bollocks, however the Daily Mail, according to Football Transfer League are the most reliable newspaper source when it comes to Forest rumours (admittedly still with a hitrate of 2 out of 7 rumours correct, but still!).  Needless to say he’d be an excellent signing too.

Isn’t the summer break fraught with frustrations?!  I’m off back into semi-hibernation until something actually happens, I think!

The League One playoffs jumped into life tonight with a pulsating game between Leeds United and Carlisle United at Elland Road.  I was set to start to draw parallels between us being 2-0 up after the away leg at Yeovil last season, and of course ultimately failing dismally, which would have offered Leeds some solace for their trip to Bruton Park.  However, a goal in the sixth minute of added time (only four were added, mind!) by Dougie Freedman perhaps gives Leeds renewed hope.

Westwood in the Carlisle goal was undoubtedly man of the match, he kept out a plethora of Leeds chances which would have put the game well beyond doubt despite goals from Danny Graham and Marc Bridge-Wilkinson that looked to be giving the Cumbrians a surprising 2-0 lead to take back with them to the north.  A surprising turn of form for them given their remarkable collapse in the final stages of the regular league season (much to our benefit!).

Following on from the somewhat disappointing first semi-final between Southend and Doncaster, it’s been good to see some decent end-to-end football; controversy wasn’t far away - not least with the amount of time allowed at the end of the game - it leaves a tantalising fixture for the return game, Carlisle won’t feel comfortable to sit on their lead, and of course Leeds will need to attack to overturn the existing deficit.  After both first legs it remains in the balance which sides will be battling out for the final promotion spot at Wembley.

I can only reiterate what a relief it is to watch the playoffs as pretty much a neutral; whilst many folk I know are clamouring to see Leeds lose, I find myself just out for seeing a decent game of football to be honest - and tonight that’s certainly what I’ve seen - and I’m hoping for more in the next leg!

We all know what happens when the season finishes, the rumours start in earnest - you only need to check one or two of the forums to see some outlandish claims being made.  My favourite (and quite persistent) one at the moment is the return of Marlon Harewood next season.  Not that I believe it, generally the flippant ‘99.9% of rumours are bollocks’ statistic is probably something that isn’t entirely unreasonable (unless you’re talking about the Fleetwood Mac album, which is probably about 50% bollocks).

Michael sent me the following link though, which tries to quantify press rumours by club; so not only does it list who is reporting on our players who may be leaving, and those we may be targeting - they also supply us with the % hit rate for each of the publications!  So, if we see the Daily Mail reporting that Commo might be defecting and travelling the wrong way up the A52, we will know there’s a 29% chance they’re right - they currently have a hit rate of 2 transfers happening, out of 7 rumours printed.

As far as I know the News of the World is the latest paper to suggest that he’s definitely going, well they have a hit rate of a big fat 0% so far!  Indeed, the only papers to get any rumours at all right for Forest are the previously mentioned Mail, the Daily Star who’ve hit 3 out of 18 rumours printed, and the Sun who have just 1 correct from 14 printed.  So ultimately, it seems that the national press are just as reliable as the resident ‘guru’ with a source on your forum of choice.

So it’s definitely worth sticking this page in your bookmarks; I shall add it to my links section as well - if nothing else it’s a one-stop shop for finding rumours rather than sifting through the papers, their websites or trying to glean that crucial bit of information from one of the many Forest forums.  Having said that, you may still have to do that as well, because there’s no mention of Marlon Harewood coming back in the press at all, which perhaps demonstrates how realistic that particular one is!

Whilst Manchester United are celebrating an unsurprising title, despite putting four goals past their respective opponents, Reading and Birmingham City will be joining Derby County (whose fate was confirmed back in March), and of course joining us, in The Championship next season.  The UEFA cup place that Villa had a slim chance of snatching remains with Everton as the top of the table resumes a very familiar shape to end the season.  

The usual suspects sit in the top three, Liverpool occupy the ‘not quite good enough to be contenders, but better than everyone else’ slot in fourth, with Everton again in fifth, but in no danger of troubling their neighbours for that ‘Champions’ League spot.  Derby of course was always an inevitable position at the foot of the table, indeed, if they’d been given nine points for a win and three for a draw, then they would still be bottom of the league, that’s how piss poor they’ve been this season.

Despite an element of drama at the foot and the top of the table, it really didn’t compare to the final run-in for both The Championship and in League One, where so many uncertainties lead to a number of surprises happening; mostly pleasing to us Reds, I might add.  It does lend weight to Smoulderwood commenting on The Football League website that the Championship is arguably the best in the country - for competitiveness… it’s hard to argue that point when you see the likes of Stoke City finally gracing the top flight again.

So as well as the obvious fixture we relish, we can also looking forward to a reacquaintance with Birmingham City and Reading; a part of me was hoping Fulham would drop as it’s a ground I’ve not visited whereas I have been to the others before - but nonetheless it does make for slightly more talented opponents that we’ve had habitually for a while.  Let’s hope we get the assorted outstanding contracts and new signings sorted out in time to have a solid preseason with a full squad!

In seasons past (or indeed, through the seasons before us?!) we’ve either been in the thick of playoff action, or looking bitterly wishing we at least had a chance in this lottery of attaining promotion.  Having steeled myself for our involvement this year, it’s been great to pay just a passing interest to the games as they occur - Southend vs Doncaster last night, and of course the Championship saw last year’s League One runners up facing Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park for a shot at the big time.

Southend couldn’t make home advantage count against a lacklustre Rovers, despite having the lion’s share of possession, and having more shots both on and off target, the Shrimpers must be content to take the game to Rovers up at the Keepmoat Stadium next week.  They will be boosted by the fact that former Notts striker Paul Heffernan decided to headbutt a Southend player directly infront of the referee, yielding the only card of the game - a red one - which will leave the striker suspended for the next leg on Friday 16th.

Leeds United will entertain Carlisle on Monday night at Elland Road for the second semi-final, and battle here will resume just three days later at Brunton Park.  I’ve never understood the scheduling of playoff dates - whilst Southend and Doncaster get a full week gap between their two games, Leeds and Carlisle get half.  But still, Carlisle won’t be relishing the trip, on an abysmal run of league form and facing not only an in-form Leeds side, but one with renewed rage following the failure of Ken Bates’ appeal to The Football League.

Of course, since we are now a Championship club (that felt good to type!) we should consider the playoffs at this level too.  Bristol City were, this time last season, where we are now - contemplating and planning for their future at the next level up.  Well this year they’ve just beaten Neil Warnock’s Crystal Palace in the first leg of their playoff semi-final.  They took the lead before being pegged back by a penalty - but won the game with a 30 yard screamer to set up a challenge for Warnock’s men on Tuesday in Bristol.

Tomorrow Watford entertain Hull City, to be followed by a return fixture on Wednesday.  The same gap for all competitors in the Championship compared to the randomness of the league we’ve just left.  Whilst I wouldn’t say I’ve been religiously following them as I had considered doing, it’s great to sit back and check results and match reports without having any real worry about what they’ll be.  It’s certainly interesting to know who’ll join us or leave us, but beyond that - it’s blissfully irrelevant!

The club claims an average increase of 10%, I make it around 12% - casting my eye down the list of prices, then I would say I’m satisfied rather than pleased.  If we take a few of their renewal rates and divide them by 23 for a ‘per match’ basis, then it does start to look a bit of a rip off in some areas, but less so in others - but I suppose that this hasn’t really changed over the last few years.

Let’s start with renewing in the Trent End, £349 - the cheapest adult option at the City Ground - this represents a little over £15 per match which isn’t bad at all.  Take it to the other extreme and go for a new (ie, not a renewal) season ticket in C or D block for a whopping £517 and it works out at almost £22.50 per game.  Now, once you factor in the ‘everyone £5/£10′ type promotions, suddenly that doesn’t start to look like such a good option unless you can guarantee you’ll make every home game.

We would have been fools to not expect Forest to leverage their promotion as an opportunity to increase their prices, but perhaps with them achieving the unexpected on the pitch I had vainly hoped they would do something even more unexpected off it and offer a real reward to those of us who’ve stuck it out for the last few seasons whilst others have walked away.  A £25 difference (between a 5-8% discount depending on where you sit) isn’t really much of a reward when you think about it.

The full details are available by clicking here.  Mark Arthur had to say the following to announce the ticket prices:

“In setting the prices for season tickets we have taken into account several factors including other Championship club’s pricing structures, especially those clubs of a comparable size and stature, and our desire to give Colin Calderwood the best possible chance of strengthening the squad.”

Ah, the old strengthening the squad chestnut.  Mind you, if we could get (and these are completely hypothetical numbers) 15,000 season tickets sold, for an average price of £275 (once you factor in the younger fans and the senior citizen rates), then it would be worth over £4m, which isn’t to be sniffed at.  Having said that, if Mr Doughty is serious about his talk of wanting to be a challenger I imagine it would still take a fairly deep hand in his pocket to supplement the season ticket money…

Hats half-off to the powers-that-be at Forest, I was anticipating the usual wait ’til some time at the end of May or the start of June until they announced season ticket prices; but apparently they’ll be available on the Official Site at some point tomorrow.  Given the residual feelings of euphoria most of us are probably still feeling, it’s a prudent move, although of course it leaves us cautiously anticipating whether they’ll opt to fleece more cash out of us or reward our loyalty over some pretty dismal seasons.

I do think there’s some way to go on this front from Forest, our neighbours down the A52 released season tickets for sale some time ago, and have reportedly already shifted just under 20,000 of them.  Whilst I can understand that economically Forest might want to consider their promotion status, other clubs in the same situation are able to offer details - and solid incentives - to get renewals tied up with these things still unconfirmed.

The idea that promotion should also mean an increase in price is a bit of a simplistic stance - promotion to the Championship is worth £8m, so arguably a price increase would be less justifiable than if we’d failed to go up again - particularly since a higher league of football should increase demand and therefore sales of the magic booklets; which ultimately, when you consider the £5/£10 games etc, don’t really offer that much of a saving - particularly if you sit in the Main Stand.

But it will be welcome to know a bit further in advance than usual, I’m still holding my judgement until I understand exactly how much I’ll be expected to part with - will it be a cynical attempt to cash in on those fantastic feelings at the weekend?  Will it be a sympathetic reward for the loyalty so many of us have shown by continuing to renew through seasons of turgid rubbish?  I suppose it’s likely to be somewhere in between the two.

It’s no great surprise really, six wins out of seven - and a draw - have been enough not only to snatch Forest automatic promotion, but enough to snag the manager of the month award for April/May; an award he’s not picked up since November 2007.  So a big congratulations to Smoulds, who quite prophetically said back in November that he wasn’t celebrating too much as the April/May award was typically indictative of the success or failure of a season.

He said to the Official Forest site:

“I remember saying when I won the award in November that it didn’t really mean too much at that stage of the season and that any manager who wins it in April and May would really have something to smile about.

“Managers who win the award at this stage of the season have usually done something right in terms of getting their team promoted or clear of relegation.

“It’s nice to get the award but it’s not all about me. We won promotion as a team and a club and have celebrated likewise since Saturday.”

Also on the Official Site is a rather nice wallpaper they’ve put together of the assorted celebratory shots taken at the weekend - perfect for that work computer if you happen to sit next to a Leicester City or Derby County fan!  You can download them by clicking this link.

Firstly, I’ve managed to track down a copy of ‘that video’ - I’ve uploaded to YouTube and re-embedded it in the original story, and I’ve also uploaded a version of it in AVI format that you can download and keep (see original story for the link).  Given I’ve been lucky so far with my other video not being subject to the ‘cull’ of so many videos of the weekend, I’m hoping it might remain there for a while, but we shall see - so watch it while you can!

The other good news is that Sky Sports are reporting Forest have made Kris Commons a contract offer in the wake of either Derby County or his agent playing silly buggers and starting to make us worry he might be on his way.  So get it signed, Kris - you said you wanted to play in the Championship, why not enjoy the contribution you made to our season by enjoying the benefits next season whilst still wearing the Garibaldi!  Hopefully we can get this wrapped up quickly.

On a blogging front, it’s been understandably busy ’round here for the last few days - Sunday smashed my previous record day, and then Monday went and smashed that too - even yesterday was bigger than the original record day.  Which is completely awesome, past ’spikes’ in activity had been driven by negativity, it’s great to have a fat spike for positive reasons.  There was a certain amount of help by links from The Guardian (bottom left, we’re number two on “Our favourite things this week”) and When Saturday Comes - so thanks fellas!

Of course, after a frenetic few days of posting, it’s likely that the posts will slow down over the next few days, weeks and months - but of course I’ll try to keep track of the rumours as they arise.  The other good news is that the reserves are on track for a league and cup double after winning a semi-final match today, so a huge well done to them, an opportunity for them to cap off a truly remarkable season.

Nigel Doughty came out immediately after promotion to congratulate Smoulderwood and the team, but given the plethora of things to comment on this one slipped through the net ’til now.  He obviously spoke of his pleasure in the achievement, but there was to be no gloating from the opt much maligned Forest chairman.

Upon taking over the club he set himself three targets, to put the finances right (which - despite involving debts, just to Mr Doughty rather than less sympathetic creditors - are apparently to his satisfaction), the mysteriously vague ‘putting the Nottingham back into Nottingham Forest’ - unless he means purely employing a decent proportion of players who hail from local areas, then I’m not convinced that’s been entirely achieved yet.

I would read that as Forest being a welcoming place for supporters - which I don’t think it has been.  I’ve seen stewards treat home (and away, to be fair) supporters very shabbily with no obvious provocation, the club are still one of the last to announce season ticket prices and endless other quibbles.  So if they mean by putting Nottingham back into Forest they will be providing exemplary service to the fans who have stuck by them through some turgid times, then I still think there is room for improvement.

His third pledge was the one that got all the headlines - to regain and retain our Premier League status.  Now, I’ve spoken before of my disillusionment with all things top flight before, it isn’t a competitive arena - but I must confess the thought of just being a league below it makes it a tantalising prospect again.  Doughty claims he won’t celebrate until we get to that level - and indeed, has spoken of not settling for mere consolidation next season either.

It’s great to hear him speaking so soon after the game and so ambitiously, of course he leaves himself open to criticism immediately - but equally he would have done by remaining silent.  Of course, this sets a target for Smoulders and his team from the get-go - consolidation is not enough, the last time Forest spoke up of lofty ambitions was the ‘We’re serious about Promotion..’ campaign - and we know how that ended.

Personally, a couple of decent results against the Sheep and a finish in the league at least four places above them (incase, surely I can’t be that lucky, they finish bottom!) would do me, and that sounds quite unrealistically ambitious right now!  I hope that Mr Doughty’s much loftier ambitions prove to be more realistic - let’s face it, it wouldn’t be the first time Forest were capable of achieving heights vaster than I believed!