Through the seasons before us..

Three teams could get second, in three different games - Blackpool are the outsiders, currently two points off second - and they face a trip to Swansea next week.  Forest are the almost-outsiders, with Crewe at home, and Bristol are pretty much the favourites with relegated Rotherham at home.  Anthony from the LTLF forum has kindly done all the work for me on working out how this could play out on the final day - so let’s consider just that…

There are three games not involving any teams, and three teams fate in the balance - so that’s three cubed - that’s 27 possible combinations of results that will occur next saturday - below they are all listed, with cunning coding to distinguish which side finishes where - 2nd place in bold, 3rd place in italic, and 4th place just as it is.  If you click the ‘read more’ button (if you’re reading from the front page) then you can see all the combinations listed below - but to foreshorten this writing, effectively assuming all combinations of results are of equal odds (which of course, they not) this is how it works itself out:

Nottingham Forest
1/3 chance of finishing 2nd
4/9 chance of finishing 3rd
2/9 chance of finishing 4th

Bristol City
14/27 chance of finishing 2nd
1/3 chance of finishing 3rd
4/27 chance of finishing 4th

Blackpool
4/27 chance of finishing 2nd
2/9 chance of finishing 3rd
17/27 chance of finishing 4th

The fat lady waits for another week before she breaks into song, but even if all results have an equal chance of occuring, Bristol City still find themselves very much in the driving seat to maintain their position in second spot.  Certainly come the Crewe game, I shall certainly be checking my phone regularly to try to keep track of results, particularly since you apparently can’t rely on what people hear (or think they hear!) on the radio in the ground given the “2-1 to the Carlisle” debacle last week!

Here are the details behind the numbers above:

Outcome 1.
Forest Win
Bristol Win
Blackpool Win

Outcome 2
Forest Win
Bristol Win
Blackpool Draw

Outcome 3
Forest Win
Bristol Win
Blackpool Lose

Outcome 4
Forest Win
Bristol Lose
Blackpool Lose

Outcome 5
Forest Win
Bristol Lose
Blackpool Draw

Outcome 6
Forest Win
Bristol Draw
Blackpool Draw

Outcome 7
Forest Win
Bristol Lose
Blackpool Win

Outcome 8
Forest Win
Bristol Draw
Blackpool Lose

Outcome 9
Forest Win
Bristol Draw
Blackpool Win

Outcome 10
Forest Draw
Bristol Win
Blackpool Win

Outcome 11
Forest Draw
Bristol Win
Blackpool Draw

Outcome 12
Forest Draw
Bristol Win
Blackpool Lose

Outcome 13
Forest Draw
Bristol Lose
Blackpool Lose

Outcome 14
Forest Draw
Bristol Lose
Blackpool Draw

Outcome 15
Forest Draw
Bristol Draw
Blackpool Draw

Outcome 16
Forest Draw
Bristol Lose
Blackpool Win

Outcome 17
Forest Draw
Bristol Draw
Blackpool Lose

Outcome 18
Forest Draw
Bristol Draw
Blackpool Win

Outcome 19
Forest Lose
Bristol Win
Blackpool Win

Outcome 20
Forest Lose
Bristol Win
Blackpool Draw

Outcome 21
Forest Lose
Bristol Win
Blackpool Lose

Outcome 22
Forest Lose
Bristol Lose
Blackpool Lose

Outcome 23
Forest Lose
Bristol Lose
Blackpool Draw

Outcome 24
Forest Lose
Bristol Draw
Blackpool Draw

Outcome 25
Forest Lose
Bristol Lose
Blackpool Win

Outcome 26
Forest Lose
Bristol Draw
Blackpool Lose

Outcome 27
Forest Lose
Bristol Draw
Blackpool Win